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Sunday, December 22, 2013

U.S. EIA sees only 1.5% Hybrid sales growth to 2040

The U.S. Energy Information Agency seems to have totally sold out to the oil lobby.

The agency predicts, in a report released Tuesday 17th December, that 78 percent of all cars and trucks will still run on gasoline in 2040, down from 82 percent last year. It predicts a big upswing in micro-hybrids and other advanced fuel technologies to 42 percent of all vehicles by 2040.

EIA predicts full hybrids will account for only 5 percent of vehicles in 2040 — up from 3.32 percent today. That's an increase of just 1.5% over the next 26 years?

It predicts just 1 percent of total sales will be plug-in hybrids and 1 percent full electric vehicles in 2040.

Those figures are misleading, to say the least.

The EIA are including car sales with light-duty vehicle sales (LDV <= 10,000 lbs. GVW). Even still their predictions barely represent reality today, let alone in 25 years time. The DoE's own latest figures show HEV and Plug-Ins already account for 7.5% of car sales... a rise of 3.5% in just the past two years.

The EIA predict 1.5% rise over the next 25 years?.... based on the trajectory of the top line in the chart above, that seems extremely unlikely!

If we look further ashore for leading indicators of market trends we find Norway where full electric vehicles already account for 12% market share amongst passenger car sales and The Netherlands where a plug-in hybrid was the top selling car last month, selling almost twice as many as the best selling petrol only car.

Source: Detroit News

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